Specializ\u0113t\u0101 literat\u016bra pal\u012bdz g\u016bt p\u0101rskatu par pa\u0161reiz\u0113jo p\u0113t\u012bjumu st\u0101vokli. Piem\u0113ram, Daniela Kahnemana (Daniel Kahneman) “\u0100tra dom\u0101\u0161ana, l\u0113na dom\u0101\u0161ana”, Gerda Gigerenzera (Gerd Gigerenzer) “Risks, k\u0101 pie\u0146emt pareizus l\u0113mumus” vai Gerharda Rota (Gerhard Roth) “Person\u012bba, l\u0113mums un uzved\u012bba”, un tie ir tikai da\u017ei no \u0161iem darbiem. \u013boti bie\u017ei tiek lietoti t\u0101di atsl\u0113gas v\u0101rdi k\u0101 risks, nenoteikt\u012bba, iest\u0101\u0161an\u0101s varb\u016bt\u012bba, kognit\u012bvie aizspriedumi vai noder\u012bgi likumsakar\u012bbas.<\/p>\n\n
Nav noliedzams, ka ikviens, kur\u0161 pie\u0146em l\u0113mumus, k\u013c\u016bd\u0101s! M\u0113s visi to zin\u0101m no savas pieredzes. Viens no sapr\u0101t\u012bgiem m\u0113r\u0137iem noteikti ir samazin\u0101t \u0161o k\u013c\u016bdaino l\u0113mumu skaitu. Lai to pan\u0101ktu, m\u016bsdienu l\u0113mumu pie\u0146\u0113m\u0113jiem ir j\u0101nodro\u0161ina r\u012bki, kas \u013cauj viegl\u0101k pie\u0146emt l\u0113mumus. Mans person\u012bgais ieteikums ir neaizmirst savu intu\u012bciju, pie\u0146emot l\u0113mumus ar nezin\u0101miem riskiem (lielu nenoteikt\u012bbu), un bie\u017e\u0101k uztic\u0113ties savam l\u0113mumam. Vienk\u0101r\u0161\u0101k sakot, m\u0113s pie\u0146emam l\u0113mumus vai nu ar galvu, t. i., racion\u0101li, vai ar\u012b ar intu\u012bciju, t. i., intuit\u012bvi. Past\u0101v vienpr\u0101t\u012bba, ka, ja ir zin\u0101mi visi probl\u0113mas parametri (riski), tad racion\u0101lais l\u0113mums ir pareizais. Tom\u0113r m\u0113s dz\u012bvojam nenoteikt\u0101 pasaul\u0113, kur\u0101 visi parametri nav zin\u0101mi. Past\u0101v sare\u017e\u0123\u012bti riski, un ir ap\u0161aub\u0101mi, vai sare\u017e\u0123\u012btu risin\u0101jumu piem\u0113ro\u0161ana vai m\u0113\u0123in\u0101jumi piem\u0113rot sare\u017e\u0123\u012btus risin\u0101jumus vienm\u0113r ir pareiz\u0101 atbilde.<\/p>\n\n
Ir daudz pozit\u012bvu piem\u0113ru, kad vienk\u0101r\u0161u likumsakar\u012bbu izmanto\u0161ana ir pareiz\u0101 pieeja sare\u017e\u0123\u012btu risku risin\u0101\u0161an\u0101. Intuit\u012bvu l\u0113mumu izmanto\u0161ana ir noder\u012bga, piem\u0113ram, paredzam\u0101s situ\u0101cij\u0101s ar m\u0101c\u012bbu potenci\u0101lu, piem\u0113ram, ugunsdz\u0113s\u012bb\u0101, avi\u0101cij\u0101 vai sport\u0101. Turkl\u0101t \u013coti nenoteikt\u0101s situ\u0101cij\u0101s bez uzticamas datu b\u0101zes. Pat ja nevarat pa\u013cauties uz varb\u016bt\u012bb\u0101m, uz kur\u0101m balst\u0101t l\u0113mumu pie\u0146em\u0161anas modeli, jums var lab\u0101k noder\u0113t \u012bk\u0161\u0137a noteikums.<\/p>\n\n
Popul\u0101rs pozit\u012bva noteikuma piem\u0113rs ir Gerda Gigerenzera (Gerd Gigerenzer) skaidrojums vi\u0146a gr\u0101mat\u0101 “Risiko, Wie man die richtigen Entscheidungen trifft” (42. un turpm. lpp.). \u0160eit ir aprakst\u012bta situ\u0101cija ar pasa\u017eieru lidma\u0161\u012bnas av\u0101rijas nos\u0113\u0161anos Hudzonas up\u0113 2009. gad\u0101. Izmantojot vienk\u0101r\u0161u likumsakar\u012bbu, piloti nol\u0113ma atteikties no nos\u0113\u0161an\u0101s LaGuardia lidost\u0101 un izv\u0113l\u0113j\u0101s av\u0101rijas nos\u0113\u0161anos Hudzonas up\u0113:<\/p>\n\n
“Nostipriniet torni: ja tornis pacelsies pilotu kab\u012bnes v\u0113jstikl\u0101, jums neizdosies.”<\/p>\n\n
\u0160is “sa\u012bsin\u0101tais l\u0113mumu pie\u0146em\u0161anas process” deva pilotiem iesp\u0113ju veikt n\u0101kamos av\u0101rijas nos\u0113\u0161an\u0101s pas\u0101kumus. Zin\u0101tn\u0113 \u0161os \u012bk\u0161\u0137a noteikumus vai l\u0113mumu pie\u0146em\u0161anas sa\u012bsin\u0101jumus sauc par heiristiku. Piloti izmantoja “skatiena eiristiku”. Piem\u0113ram, lai no\u0137ertu bumbu, m\u0113s izmantojam skatiena heiristiku (… nevis sare\u017e\u0123\u012btus trajektorijas apr\u0113\u0137inus).<\/p>\n\n
Tom\u0113r liela probl\u0113ma, kas saist\u012bta ar intuit\u012bvu l\u0113mumu, ir t\u0101 saprotam\u012bba. Cita starp\u0101 pa\u0161reiz\u0113jais tiesiskais regul\u0113jums ne\u013cauj ekonomiski noz\u012bm\u012bgus l\u0113mumus skaidrot, pamatojoties uz intuit\u012bvu l\u0113mumu. L\u0113mumu pie\u0146\u0113m\u0113js saviem akcion\u0101riem noteikti nepied\u0101v\u0101s pazi\u0146ojumu “Es pie\u0146\u0113mu l\u0113mumu, pamatojoties uz iek\u0161\u0113j\u0101m saj\u016bt\u0101m”. Ja intu\u012bcija ir bijusi pietiekami sp\u0113c\u012bga, lai pie\u0146emtu l\u0113mumu par labu intu\u012bcijai, l\u0113mumu pie\u0146\u0113m\u0113js p\u0113c tam t\u0113r\u0113s naudu, laiku un resursus, lai intu\u012bciju pamatotu ar racion\u0101liem datiem.<\/p>\n\n
Mums vajadz\u0113tu god\u012bgi pajaut\u0101t sev, cik bie\u017ei gad\u0101s, ka apzin\u0101ts l\u0113mums tiek pie\u0146emts pret\u0113ji intu\u012bcijai, ka l\u0113mums tiek pie\u0146emts pret\u0113ji savai pieredzei un ka apzin\u0101ti tiek pie\u0146emts racion\u0101ls l\u0113mums. Jo no l\u0113mumu pie\u0146\u0113m\u0113ja viedok\u013ca t\u0101 ir tikai otr\u0101 izv\u0113le. Jaut\u0101jums ir, vai tas visp\u0101r rada ekonomiskus zaud\u0113jumus? No t\u0101 var secin\u0101t, ka vad\u012bt\u0101jiem ir j\u0101zina, kad pie\u0146emt l\u0113mumus saska\u0146\u0101 ar form\u0101liem noteikumiem, kad pie\u0146emt l\u0113mumus, pamatojoties uz instinktu, un kad vislab\u0101k ir apvienot abas pieejas.<\/p>\n\n
B\u016btu interesanti izstr\u0101d\u0101t r\u012bkus, lai nov\u0113rt\u0113tu intuit\u012bvo l\u0113mumu kvalit\u0101ti. TD Trusted Decisions GmbH sadarb\u012bb\u0101 ar JKU Linc\u0101 Inform\u0101cijas sist\u0113mu instit\u016btu – Inform\u0101cijas in\u017eenieriju pa\u0161laik da\u017e\u0101dos projektos p\u0113ta \u0161o t\u0113mu. Man b\u016bs prieks inform\u0113t j\u016bs par turpm\u0101kajiem interesantajiem jaunumiem \u0161aj\u0101 jom\u0101 m\u016bsu informat\u012bvaj\u0101 bi\u013ceten\u0101.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Vienk\u0101r\u0161\u0101ks l\u0113mums. Ikviens, kur\u0161 pie\u0146em l\u0113mumus, pie\u013cauj k\u013c\u016bdas. Mums nevajadz\u0113tu aizmirst savu intu\u012bciju un bie\u017e\u0101k uztic\u0113ties saviem intuit\u012bvajiem l\u0113mumiem.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1421,"parent":0,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"blog-tag":[],"blog-type":[150],"class_list":["post-9184","blog-new","type-blog-new","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","blog-type-td-atzinas-un-perspektivas"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trusteddecisions.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog-new\/9184","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trusteddecisions.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog-new"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trusteddecisions.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/blog-new"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trusteddecisions.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trusteddecisions.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trusteddecisions.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9184"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"blog-tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trusteddecisions.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog-tag?post=9184"},{"taxonomy":"blog-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trusteddecisions.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog-type?post=9184"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}